After Monday's announcement of a year-over-year revenue decline for the third quarter of 2006, I've changed my tune on Overstock (OSTK). On January 17th, 2006, I argued Overstock was worth at least $1.5 billion. After the company reported a year-over-year decline in revenues for the third quarter of 2006, I realized I didn't understand the business. As a result, I had lost all confidence in my earlier analysis.