Nassim Taleb : A focus on the exceptions that prove the rule
By SilverSlime on Fri, 2008-01-18 03:09
(via www.ft.com)
Conventional studies of uncertainty, whether in statistics, economics, finance or social science, have largely stayed close to the so-called “bell curve”, a symmetrical graph that represents a probability distribution. Used to great effect to describe errors in astronomical measurement by the 19th-century mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss, the bell curve, or Gaussian model, has since pervaded our business and scientific culture, and terms like sigma, variance, standard deviation, correlation, R-square and the Sharpe ratio are all directly linked to it.
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