I dont hold Apple because I

five_whys — Wed, 12 Mar 2008 22:37:26 -0400

I dont hold Apple because I didnt quite get people's zeal for Apple products.. because I never used Mac or iPod.

By the time iPhone rolled around, I thought the stock was running ahead of it self and particularly because of Apple's choice of AT&T, I didn't believe it will go too far too soon.

At this point, I have very different thought on whats coming up..

1. iPhone is ready to go down iPod path.. may be at a slower pace or may be at a faster pace. The pace will be defined by Steve Jobs' ego, Nokia's ability to thwart Apple and Telecom operators fear & greed..
The obvious scenario is that iPhone will grow rapidly.

2. Apple may be fairly valued today but potential iPhone explosion is not priced in.. At this point everyone is talking about 10M iPhones in next 12months.. if Apple decides to play its card slightly differently (more operators, opening the phone for programmers - which is happening, cheaper versions.. etc..) it doesnt take much to grow this number to 20M / 50M or even 100M per year in next three years.. remember the market size is >500M phones a year.

This is what excites people about Apple and will see the stock run up again.. for me, I am ready to pay "good price for great company" and buying some Apple now.

five_whys
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I dont hold Apple because I