Bridge Street Journal, Vol. 3.11: Of Oracles, Real and Not

Bridge Street — Sun, 18 Nov 2007 14:23:56 -0500

As if we needed further evidence that there is nothing Warren Buffett can't do, a Marketwatch article reports that Alex Rodriquez (who appears to be a baseball player of some sort) went to Buffett for career advice, and the Oracle of Omaha helped him renegotiate a deal with the New York Yankees by using Goldman Sachs instead of his regular agent. The title "Oracle" is very fitting for Buffett. In Greek mythology, people of all stripes would visit the oracles, who would look into their tea leaves or fire or what have you, and offer up some advice. Today, business leaders, sports figures, and politicians flock to Omaha to sit at Buffett's feet and get some advice. The difference seems to be that Buffett's advice is clear instead of encoded, and the advice-seekers end up in a better position than they were at first, instead of involved in murderous, incestuous situations.
On the subject of oracles, another difference is that, unlike oracles of old, Buffett doesn't bother trying to predict the future in any specific sense, but tries to be "approximately right" instead of "precisely wrong." An article from Bloomberg shows the great shame that comes along with being precisely wrong. The article, which is about more woes in the housing market, mentions how various "experts" had wrongly predicted monthly economic growth. Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll is also cited as saying he couldn't predict how long the downturn would last, thoug I recall him saying a while back that he thought things were getting better. The point is not to disparage the unnamed experts or Mr. Toll, but to note that short-term predicting is a bad business to be in. Occasionally, you'll end up like Elaine Garzarelli and look like a genius for correctly predicting a short-term move. More likely than not, though, you'll look like a fool.

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Bridge Street Journal, Vol. 3.11: Of Oracles, Real and Not