CONTEST: Best Stock Pick for 2008
If you could only pick one stock on December 31st for 2008, what would it be?
Share your best stock pick in this thread by December 31, 2007. We will then track the performance of the picks from the opening bell on the first trading day of 2008 until the close of the market on the last trading day of 2008.
Each member only gets one pick. Please provide a write up of your rationale along with your pick. A prize will be given out for the best performing pick in 2008. We will also give out a prize to the best stock pick rationale posted here by December 31, 2007. The best stock pick rationale will be based on the comment with the highest number of voting points.
Prizes sponsored by Fat Pitch Financials Contributor's Corner:
- 1-Year membership to Fat Pitch Financials Contributor's Corner for the best performing pick in 2008.
- 1-Month membership to Fat Pitch Financials Contributor's Corner for the best pick rationale posted by December 31, 2007.
Rules:
- Void where prohibited.
- Only one stock pick submission per member of VIN.
- The pick and rationale must be posted as a comment on this forum post.
- Pick must trade in the U.S. and have a quote that is provided by Yahoo Finance.
- All pick submissions must be made by 4:00 PM EST, December 31, 2007.
- Your stock pick must be unique and cannot repeat a stock previously submitted to this contest. Be sure to post your stock pick idea early before someone else submits it.
2008 Stock Pick - FTEK
Fuel Tech (FTEK) seems to be generating strong recent sales and adding worldwide customers. With Clean Air Interstate Rule becoming effective in 2009, the wind is at FTEK’s back. If the shorts are indeed wrong, they will have some substantial covering to do.
Using reasonable assumptions, a good margin of safety, and a DCF analysis, I think the potential reward outways the risks for this small cap. I’m a buyer at $20 or less. Go Fuel Tech!
2008 Stock Pick..... FSLR
My pick is FSLR in the technology sector.
The reason is because this Company has developed the leading edge in the solar technology.
Keep a look out when the price of oil soar pass US100!
Alfred Chew
http://mylevel2quotes.com/
1 Pick for 08 - FMD
I haven't a chance to write up First Marblehead, but one day I may. Needless to say, the shares have been battered but upon closer look, there is nothing wrong with their core business model. Shares are currently trading at $17, and they earned $3.92 last year. Obviously the market is pricing in a collapse in earnings. I think earnings will be down near term, yes, but in a few years back beyond last year's earnings. Goldman just made a 20% investment in the company, so dilution has occurred but they have tons of capital to work with now, and their business is growing at 30% annually. I think once the uncertainties of the credit market clear up, FMD will be a double or triple. My bet is that happens this year, but it may take up to 3. I'll go with FMD anywhere up to $20
Stock Pick - RDMKF
RDM Corporation (RDM) is a provider of solutions for the e-commerce and payment processing markets. The Company established Remote Check Deposit systems and Web-based image management, and transaction processing services for retailers, banks, financial institutions, payment processors and government agencies. $0.80 per share in cash, no debt, great growth. I think this will be a winner in 2008 as remote deposit continues to gain steam in the banking market.
stock pick CSIQ
everything is wrong about this pick . it's been going up for too long now . it seem's over bought and over priced . no one should be buying this now . yet they do ! and yet it keep's setting new high's . and that's what makes this a great pick . it's not confined .
when a surfer rides a big wave , he doesnt question where the wave came from , he just rides . this stock is that wave . makes no sense but still hasn't hit the beach yet .
this babey can even be the begining of 08's first " tsanami " !
p.s. put your water wing's on and enjoy the ride !!!
VCG HOLDING CORP (VCGH)
The greatest potential for gains in a stock is in small companies with low market capitalizations. The simple way of looking at the possible return you can get from a stock is to see how much more the stock can rise. What causes stocks to rise over their lifetime? It is the same thing that causes any other asset to appreciate. The intrinsic value of that asset grows. In the case of stocks, the growth in earnings corresponds to appreciation in the stock price. When was the best time to invest in and get returns from Wal-Mart or Dell Computer? If you say today you are wrong. Because of their size it is mathematically and economically impossible for them to grow at the same rate as they did in their infancy. They would eventually be the economy.
I invest to make money. With a market cap of only $237 million VCG Holding is growing fast and the stock is undervalued and under followed. This company is growing sales at over 100% and growing earnings per share over 75%. Somehow the stock is priced at 30 times earnings. They generate a lot of free cash flow and have a predictable earnings power, repeat customers and good profitability by way of margins. Management in an effort to bring maximum profitability serves the upscale client, which included business people.
In the case of opportunity cost, there are not many other investment vehicles that can yield such high returns. The company should be insulated from a likely U.S. recession in 2008 helped by an unregulated, speculative housing bubble and downward spiraling liquidity in banks. Many people have made the link to 1929 and the period right before the great depression. I see more correlation with the banking panic and crash of 1907.
This company will continue to do what if has done, grow. If the market rewards growth at all in 2008 this stock will be a sound investment.
CIT
Another one of those subprime stocks. Well this one isnt. Its a well diversified financial company . I think the company will weather the crisis and come up on top
http://www.lacontra.net
2008 Pick: McGraw-Hill
My pick for 2008 is McGraw-Hill (MHP). This is a wide moat financial information provider and publisher. It has taken a hit due to its exposure to the subprime credit rating fiasco that its Standard & Poors unit was involved in and the subsequent decrease in demand for credit rating services. I believe the company will be largely protected from liability, and the potential increase in competition in the credit rating sector will be slow to come online. In regards to its text book business, I've heard from an industry insider that pending consolidation in this sector (which is currently under regulatory review) could drive up prices and profitability in this sector.
MHP was not my original pick. I was going to go with Western Sizzlin (WSZL), but it recent run-up to $18.75 makes me question the timing of picking this stock today. I'll probably be kicking myself on December 31, 2008, that I didn't go with my first choice.
2008 Stock Pick Contest: Initial prices
Here are the starting prices from January 2, 2007 for the contest picks we received:
Alfred Chew
Jeffrey Annello
I3east
robert
Mark Perkins
alexg
George
Best Pick Rationale
The best 2008 stock pick rationale was by Jeffrey Annello for FMD. Jeffrey will be receiving a one month subscription to Fat Pitch Financials Contributor's Corner. It will be interesting to see if this pick will hold up over the year to win the final VIN Best Stock Pick for 2008 contest.
Special thanks goes out to Geoff Gannon from Gannon On Investing for helping out in making the final pick rating.
COIN: A NASDAQ US based organic fertilizer stock
COIN: A NASDAQ US based organic fertilizer stock
FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
The below COIN financials I got from listening to conference:
http://tinyurl.com/3b2wor
In the second quarter of 2008 the Woodbridge facility will be converting 250k tons a day but has permits available to operate at full capacity of 500k tons per day. 100k tons brings in $21,200 in fertilizer + $6200 in tipp of revenue, 250k tons a day will bring in $53,000 fertilizer + $15,500 in tipp revenue per day. There are approximately 66 days in a quarter taking away Saturday & Sundays : 66 x $68,500 =$4.52M in revenue per quarter. POT & TNH have between 20%-30% in profit margins so lets give COIN a Profit margin of 15% of $4.52M = 678k profit per qtr. COIN has 4.23M shares outstanding not including any future warrents that could be converted into shares. That equates to .15 eps per qtr with 15% profit margins with Plant at only 50% production capacity. The plant at full capacity will convert 500k tons per day which equals to $1.20 EPS per year. Remember this is based on 15% profit margins, actual could be lower or higher.