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Stanley Druckenmiller: Top 10 Holdings

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  • These documents allow investors to track their favorite superinvestors, their fund’s current holdings, plus their new buys and sold out positions.
  • This week we’ll take a look at Stanley Druckenmiller (9-30-2019).

Why Have Spin-Offs Significantly Underperformed Over The Last Decade

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  • Jon Boyar: Spin outs you know… people have always thought were winning strategies but over the last decade they’ve significantly underperformed.
  • Everybody’s read the Greenblatt yellow book where he talks about spins and typically everybody before that book, I guess you’d want to go with a more popular stock, but I think that Greenblatt said you want to look at the one that is the… You’ve got to follow the incentives.
  • You want to be forward looking and one of the things that you mentioned was incentives.

How To Think About Starting Position Size For An Anti-FOMO Portfolio

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  • In this week’s episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discuss how to implement an Anti-FOMO sizing strategy to get started in a position.
  • Bill Brewster: So I was talking with somebody that listens to the podcast and he was commenting on how weak my answers sounded to the, why don’t I run outside capital question.
  • Bill Brewster: I don’t know that I have a good answer for that.

Manufacturing PMIs Converge & Q4 Earnings Season Review

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  • The difference between the ISM PMI and the Markit PMI fell to
    1 as the former spiked and the latter fell slightly.
  • Output prices were up fractionally as price growth was the lowest in 3 months.
  • The ISM manufacturing PMI has been below the Markit PMI and the average of regional Fed indexes for the past few months.

Billionaire investor Ron Baron: I'm not opposed to higher taxes, but 'I hate the wealth tax'

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  • Billionaire investor Ron Baron told CNBC on Tuesday he's ardently against implementing a wealth tax.
  • "I hate the wealth-tax idea," the founder of Baron Capital and lifelong Democrat said in a " Squawk Box " interview.
  • The wealth tax proposed by Sen. Bernie Sanders , a self-described democratic socialist, would be progressive, starting at 1% for household net worth of more than $32 million and ending at 8% on wealth over $10 billion.

Everything Seems Healthy On The Surface

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  • As you can see from the chart below, the top 1% has had a higher savings rate in each decade since the 1970s.
  • According to a December 2017 Marist poll, 20% of American
    workers were contractors (33% of freelancers in 2019 according to Upwork (18.8
    million people)).
  • The bottom 50% has 4% of its $7 trillion of wealth in equities.

Bruce Greenwald: Old School Value Investors Who Do Not Evolve Will Disappear

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  • Here’s a great interview with Bruce Greenwald on the Value Investing With Legends Podcast .
  • Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
  • Because if you think of an individual investor, most of their capital is in their job.

The Problem With Investing In Cyclicals Is That You Have To Be Right Twice

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  • During his recent interview with Tobias, Jon Boyar, JD/President of Boyar Research , discussed the problem with investing in cyclical businesses is that you have to be right twice saying:
  • When you hear about value investing, a lot of people think you have deep cyclical names.
  • I love the country but yeah it’s a painful to have to pay taxes on transaction then something you really should be mindful to us it’s not what you make, it’s when you keep it.

The Implicit Bets In Value vs Growth

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  • In this week’s episode of the VALUE: After Hours Podcast, Taylor, Brewster, and Carlisle discuss the implicit bets in value vs growth.
  • I don’t think that’s going to happen.
  • But like I don’t want this guy trying to think about how to grow the company, but that’s me.

7 Stocks Enriching Their Shareholders With Higher Dividends

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When evaluating a company as a potential income investment you look at its calculated fair value, ability to generate cash, debt position and the net present value of its dividend stream compared to alternative “safe” investments. The advantages dividend stocks have over "safe" investments are potential capital appreciation and dividend growth. Not only are your earnings compounding, but the rate... #D4Ldividend #D4L

Private Portfolio Update

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  • I sold 50% of an old media stock for a 44% gain last week and 33% of a medical equipment company for a 61% gain last week.
  • February 3, 2020

Michael Burry: What Was The Secret Sauce Of The Doomsday Machine

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  • The whole effort was complicated because it was important to me that the security, this instrument that I’d like to use to short the market would be standardized such that if I bought a credit default swap from one dealer counterparty I could easily trade that credit default swap to another dealer counterparty bespoke.
  • In May of 2005, May 19th of 2005, we agreed to our first trades shorting the subprime mortgage market with Deutsche Bank.
  • A lower price therefore it would benefit Goldman Sachs and that’s how Wall Street works.

(Ep.51) The Acquirers Podcast: Jon Boyar – Private Equity – Private Market Value, Spinoffs, And Super Mario Gabelli

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  • Super Mario Gabelli – Look At Every Investment Through The Lens Of A Knowledgeable Acquirer Why Have Spin-Offs Significantly Under-Performed Over The Last Decade Investing Alongside John Malone Leads To Outstanding Returns The Problem With Investing In Cyclical Businesses Is You Have To Be Right Twice Great Consumer Franchises Provide Profitable Investment Opportunities Maybe We Don’t Need A Catalyst For Value Investing To Return Charles Dolan And Family Have Become Unbelievably Shareholder Friendly Barry Diller Is A Great Capital Allocator Successful Investing Is Sometimes Like Watchi

Value Investing Lessons from Renaissance

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  • I imagine that a lot of people picked up this book to see if they could learn anything at all that might help them with their own trading.
  • So, literally, even if you have very good market data, you will probably not even see the anomalies/signals in the data over the last 20 years, as Renaissance was likely actively trading it with the intent of disguising what it was doing.
  • The next day, the market rebounded.

Coronavirus update – impact

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  • This isn’t happening (one reason being that Hong Kong, in general, has much better sanitation practices).
  • Coronavirus is transmitted via larger liquid droplets when a person coughs or sneezes.
  • This is not to say Coronavirus will not have an effect – when you quarantine cities and have the capacity to disrupt commerce around the world, it will have a heavy psychological effect.

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