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Commentary

Bank of Utica - 2019 Annual Report

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Twenty Years of Owning Berkshire Hathaway

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  • Exactly twenty years ago, I made a decision to purchase my first shares of Berkshire Hathaway.
  • Berkshire was not investable for me at that time.
  • Returns based on closing price of $227.33 on 2/11/2020

Some links

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  • Undervalued Shares has a great feature about the “Klement on Investing” blog FTAlphaville is not impressed by Uber’s plans for profitability Valuesque with another interesting  “accounting deep dive”, this time on Northgate Plc 2019 letter to shareholdersof TGV Intrinsic (incl.
  • TomTom write-up) The Annual letter 2019 of Tyro Capital includes some great stuff on stock picking Bruce Packard on the current “Quant winter” A great deep dive into the risks and opportunities for Spotify

Real Wage Growth & Election Risk

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  • Yearly core inflation rose slightly, but stayed at 2.3%
    which beat estimates for 2.2%.
  • Based on the CPI report, Oxford
    Economics expects headline PCE inflation to increase 0.2% to 1.8% and core PCE
    inflation to rise 0.1% to 1.7%.
  • The chart below shows used vehicle retention leads used car inflation by 3 months.

Buying the DYNT Chart

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  • Stock was near $3 for years and that tells me the world was pretty sure this is a $3 stock not too long ago.
  • At this point I'm buying stock.
  • I did a pretty good amount of buying in Nov, Dec, Jan with that.

Q3 I LP: The Cryptic Doctors of Persuasion

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  • One former Q3 Trading Club investor told the Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation that Dr. Tran had told him that after Ackerman adjusted the trading strategy in the fall of 2017 , the monthly returns would be 13 percent to 15 percent.
  • Of Q3 I LP’s $33 million in limited partner capital, only about $10 million was invested in various cryptocurrency exchanges, according to the SEC.

Coronavirus, Munger etc.

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  • Bubble I've said this here many times before, but for the stock market to be in a real bubble, at these interest rates, the P/E ratio would have to get up to 50x or some such.
  • As value investors, we care about what a business is going to be worth five, ten years out, so it doesn't matter how bad this coronavirus gets.
  • So every time something bad happens, it has just been enormously bullish,every time .

Small Businesses Expect Big Increase In Real Sales

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  • The January NFIB small business confidence index rose from 102.7 to 104.3 which beat estimates for 103.2.
  • The #NFIB survey came out today and corroborated the strong #ISM reading.
  • The small business confidence index was strong especially when it comes to sales expectations and past earnings.

How An Oil Spike Will Pop The Everything Bubble

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  • Jake Taylor:
    But if you go back and look at … There’s some really interesting correlations when you look at the price of oil and then different prices of indexes.
  • In oil and gas it seems to me that there’s no discussions of peak oil when the oil price is really cheap.
  • Bill Brewster:
    Somewhere Kyle Bass is listening to his pulling his hair out, because he claims he counts the best oil barrels out of anybody.

This Week’s Best Investing Articles, Research, Podcasts 2/14/2020

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  • Here’s a list of this week’s best investing reads:
  • This week’s best value-investing reads:
  • This week’s best investing research reads:

TAM Stock Screener – Stocks Appearing In Greenblatt, Dalio, Tudor Jones Portfolios

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  • Part of the weekly research here at The Acquirer’s Multiple features some of the top picks from our Stock Screeners and some top investors who are holding these same picks in their portfolios.
  • Jim Simons – 496,982 total shares held
  • Joel Greenblatt – 320,564 total shares held

What Makes An Asset Safe?

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  • But there are situations where housing prices have been bid up to where the prices don’t justify the cash flows if you are borrowing to own it and are renting it out.
  • Price, leverage, and management?
  • Companies that pay dividends and buy back stock are shareholder friendly, and that is good so long as they don’t borrow too much to do that.

Course of Love

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  • When I first started reading The Course of Love: A Novel, I thought I must have gotten something wrong.
  • It didn't seem like the type of book I normally read, and so I had to go back through my notes...
  • [[ Please visit site to read more ]]

January Dividend Income Report – a New trade and a Travelling Story

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  • I decided to invest 100% of this money into dividend growth stocks .
  • When you think of the stock market, you may often have the feeling that it is filled with that bus company’s employees.
  • We have been doing this for an entire year now and I wanted to share my own DSR PRO report for this portfolio.

Yellow Pages Q4-2019: Dividends re-instated

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  • A business cannot last very long if revenues drop 30% a year, and if they can stem this challenge, which I believe they will, the stock will be going much higher than the $11.70 it closed at yesterday.
  • I was expecting some sort of equity buyback decision (there is a considerable incentive to seeing a higher stock price both from an insider perspective but also equitizing the convertible debenture), but instead, management announced they will pay 11 cent quarterly dividends in Q2-2020.

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