Bridge Street Journal, Vol. 4.1: Springboks, Probability, and Conformity
The springbok of southern Africa, combined with some simple mathematics, yields useful lessons for investors. A springbok is a deer-like animal that, according to Wikipedia, forms some of the largest migratory herds ever recorded. Imagine now that you are a springbok in a herd with 99 other identical springbok walking around the barren wasteland that is Africa (though there appears to be some greenery in the south). Further imagine that you are a particularly intelligent and mathematically-gifted springbok who calculates that there is a 50% chance that a lion or other predator is close enough to attack your herd. From years of experience watching your cousins being eaten, you know that, in the event of an attack, one of you will be eaten. It is a simple enough calculation to see that your odds of being eaten are .5% (you are 1/100, or 1% of the herd, and there is a 50% that you'll be eaten -- 50% of 1% is .5%). Those seem to be pretty good odds (not as good as those of the lion, though; note that in our example she gets a meal 100% of the time).
Now consider the case in which you are deciding whether to walk away from the herd a few hundred yards, perhaps to chew on a particularly green patch of grass (or, if the picture from Wikipedia is to be believed, a patch that's not quite as brown as the other patches). Now, however, your statistically advanced brain recalculates your odds, this time with the understanding that, if there is indeed a lion around, she's certainly going to attack you rather than one of the other 99 who are still with the group (the odds of her approach being detected are 99 times greater, she'd have to decide on the fly which one to go after, etc.). There is still only a 50% chance that the lion is out there, but now your particular odds of having your entrails spread out and eaten in front of you before the sweet hand of death takes you away have risen from the previous .5% to 50%.
There are various lessons of interest to be taken from the story of the springbok:
- Over many millions of years, as evidenced by their massive herding, even the mathematically-disinclined springbok have learned the benefits of staying with the herd. It's no wonder. If casinos can make vast profits from probability differences of 1% or 2%, even a small-brained springbok will quickly see the outcome differences between a .5% chance of being okay and a 50% chance of being eaten. It is not difficult, then to see why this herding mentality, which seems to be shared by most mammals, is so powerful. The mammalian brain is hard-wired to run when the herd runs and graze when the herd grazes. The springbok who wanders away on his own, or stops to evaluate why the others are running will find himself in a distinctly inferior position. This hard-wiring explains why it is so difficult for investors to sell when others are buying or buy when others are selling. When speculators pile into gold, which goes up every day while your bets on some bank continuously go down, you get a steady, primitive, negative reinforcement as punishment for wandering from the herd.
- As Jason Zweig cleverly pointed out in a video presentation linked to Value Investing News, it is conformist to say that you are a non-conformist. Everyone wants to say that he or she goes against the herd; you feel smart and brave. But, as I learned in one of my first Economics classes, it is important to look at what people do, not what they say they'll do. In general, investing behavior mirrors that of the springbok.
- As Zweig also pointed out in the video presentation referenced in the above paragraph, much of mammalian behavior is automatic and unconscious. The springbok's muscles have already contracted to run and his body is in motion before his brain conciously assesses what is going on. Similarly, many of investors' actions seem to be controlled by responses that are not fully appreciated by the conscious mind.
- I increasingly see irony in value investing message boards. A while back I read over a message board dedicated to value investing. As is to be expected, many messages focused on the idea of contrarianism. What I found fascinating, however, was the (perhaps unconscious) need for self-affirmation. Headings like "is anyone buying XYZ Corp now" and "ABC appears undervalued" popped up with great frequency. Upon reading the subsequent messages, it became apparent that these "value investors" had simply formed their own little herd, as if all the mathematical springbok had gone off on their own. What they got, instead of true contrarianism, was a subset of investors who simply sought to conform in a different way from others. A search for affirmation of a particular investment from other "value investors" hid just beneath the surface of posts ostensibly about the merits or demerits of the investment in question. Of particular interest was how this behavior intensified as markets started going down at a faster pace: when markets were going along at an even pace, people seemed most comfortable with their analyses. As things started to fall apart, the need for group (or herd) affirmation grew in inverse proportion to the performance of the price of the equity in question. The value-oriented springbok were fine as long as the lion existed in theory; when the bushes started shaking, though, conformism crept back in.
- Our springbok-hero could improve his chances of getting to that lush patch of grass by taking some precautions. By looking around, standing on the highest vantage point nearby, he could perhaps gain a better understanding of the probability that the lion is around. Wondering whether a particlar company will survive the subprime crisis? Understanding its financial strength can give a better idea of the probability. How much cash does the company have on its balance sheet? How much could the company save per year by cutting the dividend? What has the company done in previous, similar periods of upheavel? These, and other questions, may give an investor a better idea of his odds of survival, should he leave the herd.
- Just how lush is that grass? Is it a one yard patch or is it an entire valley? Does it even matter? If the springbok had read Buffett, he likely wouldn't leave unless he knew there was no lion (recall Buffett's comments about not playing Russian roulette for any amount of money, even with one bullet in a gun with one million chambers). The difference between you and the springbok is that you don't die if you are wrong, and you can go after more than one patch of grass at a time. You can never absolutely know whether the lion is lurking in the grass (if Africa weren't so dry, I wonder if lions would have evolved to have green fur to hide better? I've read that some sort of bears (Polar Bears, I think) have hollow fur and appear green as algae grows inside it), but you can, via your own calculations and judgments, increase your odds of knowing whether she's there.
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Good article, I agree with
Good article, I agree with your assessment of herding amongst value investors on the internet; its widespread.
Thanks, and Graphic Illustration
Thanks, Jeffrey. I just noticed that the headline picture on the StreetCapitalist website provides a very good illustration of a zebra (sorry it's not a springbok) that perhaps wandered from the herd without doing its due diligence.
Re: Thanks, and Graphic Illustration
I love that graphic on StreetCapitalist! Great article Bridge. Sorry it has taken me so long to get to reading it. I've been too busy looking for my own grass to play with the herd here this past week.
Thinking of herd mentality, do you think we can successfully harness the wisdom of crowds here at Value Investing News without succumbing to herd mentality? Are we succeeding in providing a collaboratively filtered news source that intelligently informs investors of valuable content? What do we need to change/improve to avoid herd mentality but instead foster intelligent independent thinking that can be compounded by the network effect? If we do acheive a network effect by our collective filtering, how do we prevent the free rider problem? As you can see, it is all rather complicated
As Value Investing News evolves, I've been thinking more and more about some of the problems faced by other social news and bookmarking sites. Are there lessons learned by some of their misteps that we should be implementing here?
So far I've worked hard to create incentives for members to work together. I've also avoided adding short term news noise such as market prices and instead promoted long term content such as the annual reports list in the sidebar. I've also tried to keep our niche tight by encouraging members to vote on stories as if they were the Oracle of Omaha deciding on what was worth reading and what was not. I'm thinking about adding a "friends" list capability, but I'm not sure if that will cause more potential herd behavior. These are all difficult decisions. Any insights would be appreciated.
Check out this interesting article on the failure of the wisdom of crowds for some background on the potential problems we might run into with herd behavior.
Response to George: On Message Boards
George: That's an interesting question. I used to read message boards with some frequency. However, every one I read suffered from one type of failure or another (or several failures at once). It turns out that I have spent a lot of time trying to figure out how I would set up a message board in order to maximize the collective wisdom of the group involved. I did this not because I have a lot of time on my hands, but because a long time ago I thought I might like to start a website with a message board dedicated to teasing out some of the best investment ideas of the time. Due to technological inability and general sloth, though, my message board idea remains in the theoretical ether. To answer your question, I do have some ideas as to how it could be done, but my model may well be just as flawed as the ones I criticize. It's a fascinating subject, though, and I liked the story in the link you provided about the crowd's average guess for the bull's weight being about accurate. Even if the markets cause one to end up penniless, at least they provide considerable excitement on the way down.