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Scott Goodwin Short PlastiPak, Long Constellium: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Scott Goodwin's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Credit investor - Secular shift in plastic packaging.
  • Much easier to recycle aluminum and higher recycling rates

Sohn New York Idea Contest Winner: Short Lamb Weston

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  • Sohn Idea Contest Winner: Short Lamb Weston
  • • Lamb Weston(LW) – (Short idea) Lamb will miss estimates by 30% to 40% in next few years as margins are at peak.
  • o Buys potatoes and sells them as french fries to restaurants.o Lots of new supply coming online.

Bihua Chen Long Reata Pharmaceuticals: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Bihua Chen's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Reata pharmaceuticals (RETA) - stock can be a ten bagger if it works.
  • Has an experimental drug targeting kidney disease with good results.

Todd Westhus's WDC Trade: Long Bank Debt/Short Bonds (Sohn New York Conference Presentation)

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  • Next up is Todd Westhus of Olympus Peak Asset Management who presented a Western Digital (WDC) trade: long bank debt / short bonds.
  • Todd Westhus's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Western Digital (WDC) - negative cyclical and secular headwinds.

Lauren Taylor Wolfe Long Wyndham Hotels & Resorts: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Benefit from trade downs in tough times.
  • Lots of international growth coming online.o LaQuinta has a lot of growth.
  • Base case 62% return 3 year return.

Jeffrey Gundlach: Buy Interest Rate Volatility on the Long Bond (Sohn New York Conference)

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  • Jeff Gundlach's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Public debt about to explode and interest costs will explode.
  • Especially once we hit a recession• He thinks there is more of a chance of recession• Interest rates will see more volatility• Fed Chair Powell has completely changed his tune and is moving towards MMT• Buy interest rate volatility on the long bond.

Matthew Smith Long Cabot Oil & Gas: Sohn New York Presentation

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  • We're posting up notes from the Sohn New York Investment Conference.
  • Matthew Smith's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Energy focused investment firm• Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) - Currently $25 a share.

Parvinder Thiara Long Brazilian Bonds: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Parvinder Thiara's Sohn New York Presentation
  • • Worked at DE Shaw for 8 years before setting up fund; Chemist• Uses macro for relative value trades• Brazil- Long Brazilian bonds (currency hedged) as too much policy tightening is being priced in.
  • Inflationary pressure should remain low as there is slack in the economy.

Exited the Aratana Therapeutics deal

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  • Just one week ago I wrote that I initiated a position in Aratana Therapeutics (NASDAQ:PETX).
  • With Elanco now trading at $30.77/share and Aratana at $4.63/share the spread is a negative 1.6% and the CVR is implicitly valued at $0.07/share.
  • My rough, and perhaps optimistic guess, of its value was around $0.10/share so there is little reason to keep my Aratana position.

The Most Important Thing For Investors To Focus On Right Now Is Not Earnings – It’s Margins

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  • So I think a lot of people who are using earnings-based measures don’t really understand this that well, that if you’re using an earnings-based PE to ratio, what have you, you have the embedded assumption that profit margins are going to remain at record highs indefinitely, that there will not be any reversion in those.
  • So corporate profits margins are only so high because labor has been getting a much smaller share than they ever have historically.
  • So now labor is essentially revolting, through politics.

Selling Compass Group after recent share price gains

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  • Compass Group joined the model portfolio in February 2018 as the world’s leading food services business.
  • From its earliest post World War 2 days, when it was known as Factory Canteens, the company has focused primarily on managing canteens for public and private organisations alike.
  • I added Compass to the model portfolio in early 2018 […]

Who Am I? (and my composers)

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  • But when it comes to national identity, I think of myself as American.
  • And then there is being Jewish.
  • Rachmaninoff wrote the original version in 1926, but it received a very muted response.

Some links

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  • An interesting article on how Private Investigators are used by Hedge Fund investors Some deep research on the planned Genworth Financial take over by China Oceanwide Ricegrowers Ltd from Australia could be interestng for investors into agricultural companies The always brilliant Ben Thompson on Microsoft, Slack, Zoom & SaaS businesses yetanothervalue blog with a range of thoughts and ideas A good summary on what’s going on in the “spin-off” area Fantastic story on a guy who invented algorithmic horse betting

What's an Overlooked Stock? - And Why You Should Focus on Them

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  • May 3, 2019
  • Focused Compounding co-founder Andrew Kuhn talks about why the two of us decided to focus 100% of our managed accounts on “overlooked stocks”.

Mental Models: The Two Systems of Thinking

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  • May 3, 2019
  • My Focused Compounding co-founder, Andrew Kuhn, talks about “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman.

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