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How To Know When To Sell A Dividend Stock

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When I add a stock to my dividend portfolio, it is my intention to hold the stock forever. When stock prices start dropping, our primal instinct of flight kicks in and we want to sell. In many cases that is the time to be buying...

Generalized market thoughts

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  • As long as American oil producers are able to pump progressively higher amounts of crude oil, Canadian producers will always be at a relative disadvantage to the USA unless if they develop a proper export facility that goes outside the USA.
  • In general, natural gas producers (and there are a handful of them to look at) look more promising from a valuation perspective than do crude oil counterparts.
  • When equity prices fall, in order to generate the extra needed return, you rebalance and purchase more equity.

Escape- DowDuPont Likes Corteva Coladas- Spinoff And Name Change Set For June 1

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  • It seem like just last month that DowDuPont(DWDP) completed the spinoff of Dow(DOW).
  • As was planned from the moment Dow and DuPont merged just a few short years ago, DowDuPont has one more spinoff to complete before it changes its name back to DuPont(or DuPont de Nemours, Inc., to be precise), and its ticker back to DD.
  • DowDuPont’s… Read More »

Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger & Bill Gates Interview

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  • - On Kraft Heinz (KHC): "The company has my confidence."
  • While the 8% preferred is a sweet deal for him, he noted that, "It's a bet on oil prices over the long-term more than anything else.
  • - Buffett said: "Charlie beats this into me all the time: As soon as you find a mistake, do something about it.

Walter Schloss: When You Find Great Stocks, Keep Them A Secret

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  • We’ve just been reading through a great interview that Walter and Edwin Schloss did with OID back in 1989.
  • During the interview Walter Schloss explains one of the reasons why he always kept the holdings in his portfolio a secret, saying:
  • And I’ve made so much money on the stocks that he had in his portfolio, I just wanted to come by and thank him.

There’s A Philosophical Problem With Passive Investing That A Lot Of Investors Don’t Appreciate

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  • During his recent interview with Tobias, Jesse Felder, hedge fund manager and Founder of The Felder Report Newsletter discusses the philosophical problem with passive investing whereby indexes systematically underweight owner-operated companies and systematically overweight companies.
  • Jesse Felder: Something that Steve Bregman, I had on my podcast a couple years ago, and he was … I don’t think people appreciate the fact that it was 2004 or five when they actually changed the index methodology from just cap-weighted to float-adjusted cap-weighting.

Rosetta Stone valuation question

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  • Today I examined them and read the financial statements of their last quarterly update without looking at their stock price, and see that the underlying operation still is not generating cash and they are struggling to keep their high margin revenues (namely – there is quite a bit of competition in the language learning space and also the barriers to compete in this market are not that high).
  • Likewise, RST has $146 million in deferred revenues on their books which will be ‘guaranteed’ revenues over the next couple years.

Sohn New York Investment Conference Notes 2019: Einhorn, Robbins, Sundheim & More

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  • The 2019 Sohn New York Investment Conference concluded and as usual it featured an excellent array of speakers sharing investment ideas all to benefit pediatric cancer research.
  • Click the links below to go to notes from each talk.
  • Sohn New York Conference Notes 2019

Larry Robbins Long HMOs/Hospitals, Short 3M & Chemours: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Next up is Larry Robbins of Glenview Capital who talked about the healthcare industry and shared a myriad of ideas, including long HMOs and hospitals, short pharma index, and short 3M (MMM) and short Chemours (CC).
  • Buy HMOs and hospitals.
  • Short Chemours - is also exposed to these PFAS lawsuits.

Ryan Heslop Short Community Health Systems: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Trend towards outpatientso Rising unit costso Declining profitability per bedo Slashed capex by 50% per bed over 10 years.
  • Paid top dollar buying them at 600k.
  • On sale has received 250k per bed and might be getting worseo Debt per bed has increased to over 700k per bedo Company doesn’t generate any cash.

David Einhorn Long Aercap, Short GATX: Sohn New York Conference

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  • • Companies that lease airplanes have better businesses than companies that lease railcars (long Aercap, short GATX)
  • o Airline leases are usually at least 10 years with a 25 year lifeo Railcar leases are 5 years when it’s new or less when it is used.
  • Recent leases are shorter termo Aercap trades at a 50% discount to GATX even though it’s a better business both on P/E and P/Bo Aercap is buying back stock.

Daniel Sundheim Long Netflix & Disney, Bearish on Canadian Pot Stocks: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Daniel Sundheim's Sohn New York Presentation
  • - Bearish on Canadian pot companies: "Growing marijuana is inherently not a good business."
  • Business models are challenged and the valuations are 'absurd.'

Angela Aldrich Short Treasury Wine Estates: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Angela Aldrich's Sohn New York Presentation
  • Only high end is growing (which is small)o Millennials not drinking wine (drink spirits and smoke pot)o Penfolds big in China.
  • Now selling for $8.99.o In house distribution not going wello Looking for 50% downside at a generous 19 times forward earningso Business is not growing.

Christopher Hansen Long Zillow: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Chris Hansen's Sohn New York Presentation
  • $350 million in EBITDA• Huge potential in flipping homes.
  • 50% to 75% attach rates• Will get fees on this flip.

Gabe Plotkin Bullish Las Vegas Sands & Worldpay: Sohn New York Conference

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  • Gabe Plotkin's Sohn New York Presentation
  • - Sees US growth looking stable, says this is a "good environment for stocks.
  • "- Bullish on Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Worldpay (WPAY)- Most of his fund's profits have come from shorting and betting against companies.

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