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Graham & Doddsville Spring 2019 Newsletter

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  • Bill Stewart, Founder of both Stewart Asset Management and W.P.
  • Stewart and Company
  • The second interview is with Bill Stewart, founder of both Stewart Asset Management and W.P.

Howard Marks: Top 10 Holdings Q12019

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  • These documents allow investors to track their favorite superinvestors, their fund’s current holdings, plus their new buys and sold out positions.
  • We spend a lot of time here at The Acquirer’s Multiple digging through these 13F-HR documents to find out which superinvestors hold positions in the stocks listed in our Stock Screeners .
  • This week we’ll take a look at Howard Marks (3-31-2019):

Value Investing Will Turn Around But No-One Can Say When

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  • During his recent interview with Tobias, Justin Carbonneau, a Partner at Validea Capital discusses how value investing will turn around but no-one can say when.
  • Tobias Carlisle: I think value investors have been doing a lot of introspection.
  • Tobias Carlisle: I’ve been saying, “It’s five years,” for so long that it’s longer than five years now.

AAPL: How Popular are Apple's iPhone Financing Plans in the US? Here's a Look

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  • Apple offers iPhone financing through 24-month zero-interest installment loans funded by Citizen's Bank (US).
  • It could be buyers don't want to fool with an installment loan and have it affect their credit report when they can just use their credit card to finance the purchase.
  • Citizen's has disclosed the balance of "merchant partnership" loans which are the Apple iPhone financing plans f(or most quarters).

Leveraged Promoters, Haemorrhaged Stockholders

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  • What will happen next is that the lenders who hold the collateral will dump it in the market and the stock price will crash.
  • And if the market believes that no money will come or not enough will come (and the market may be right or wrong about this belief), then the stock price will crash because of what we call as “supply overhang.” Notice, for the stock price to crash, it is not necessary for the actual dumping of shares to occur, although that’s often the case.
  • It’s the EXPECTATION of the stock price crash that creates the stock price crash.

Not Enough U.S. Cash Burning IPOs for You? Here Comes China’s Luckin Coffee

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  • Just as U.S. investors are trying to make sense of the Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) IPOs, both disastrous for those buying at the offer prices, on Friday we will get a U.S. listing of Chinese-operated, Cayman Island-incorporated coffee upstart Luckin Coffee.
  • All one can do is estimate what they think margins could ultimately be based on the business model, assume long-term success, and calculate an imputed price-to-sales ratio worth paying today given certain growth assumptions.

A Bit Too Much Bounce & Another Way to Lose Money in Auto Stocks

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  • The extraordinary bounce in the US market has not gone unnoticed.
  • Whether a leading, coincident, or lagging indicator versus global manufacturing, continuing strength in the semiconductors appears associated with an increasingly strong view on the resumption of global manufacturing growth.
  • Another way to Lose Money in Auto Stocks

International Dividend Stocks; Do You Really Need Them?

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  • The Canadian market gives me a great exposure to exceptional companies in the “closed” market of Banks .
  • I don’t believe you need international stocks in your portfolio.
  • This includes many companies with international exposure that will keep increasing their dividend year after year.

Where To Find Great Dividend Stocks

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In my dividend database, I track around 200 stocks in 11 different sectors. Generally, the characteristics of certain sectors tend to match those that dividend growth investors are looking for, thus their constituents are often make better dividend investments. In the case of the stocks I track, nearly half of them are in these three sectors...

Spinoff Odds & Ends: Thyssenkrupp Changes Plans & Zayo-nara to Zayo Spinoff

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  • We discussed one scrapped spinoff earlier this week – Brunswick’s Life Fitness – but, alas, it wasn’t an isolated incident.
  • In this edition of Odds & Ends we catch you up on the latest in abandoned spin plans: 1.
  • Thyssenkrupp’s Elevator Spinoff thyssenkrupp (TKAMY) shocked the markets with a stunning strategic about face ‘reset’ last week.

How Do You Generate A Performance Record Better Than Mohnish Pabrai

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  • During his recent interview with Tobias, Justin Carbonneau, a Partner at Validea Capital discusses the performance of some of the greatest investors of all time, and how one investor in particular managed to out-perform Mohnish Pabrai.
  • To look at, but it’s the chart of it has returns on the y-axis and the number of years on the x-axis, and it shows all these great superstar investors, and where they would be.
  • You can find out more about Tobias’ podcast here – The Acquirers Podcast .

Charlie Munger: I’m Ashamed On Missing Out On Google and, Beware of IPO Unicorns

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  • ANDY SERWER: Someone was telling me the other day that they thought that you could actually sort of think of Apple and Amazon not as technology companies so much, but as big-branded growth businesses, which would be something that would be appealing to you.
  • CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, there are a whole lot of things I don’t think about.
  • ANDY SERWER: Have you looked– so, you’re not interested in Uber or companies like that necessarily?

Investing in Japan Book Review (How to Earn a 25% Compound Return)

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  • He's been completely obsessed with Graham's net net strategy since 2010, and has spent much of his time since learning how to employ the strategy to earn the highest returns possible.
  • Markets are no different.
  • Indeed, Japan is a significant opportunity for deep value investors, since the Japanese markets are relatively much cheaper.

What can Long-term Value Investors Learn from Traders?

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  • While I believe that the success rate in trading is less than that in long-term value investing (and this belief is debatable), I also feel that good traders are far more detached than value investors.
  • For a trader, the mindset of capital preservation first, makes him far far more detached than a typical value investor who tends to fall in love with his ideas and cling to those ideas even when evidence warrants a change of mind.
  • This means that if you are a budding value investor, you should have in your network, a few successful traders.

5G Primer and Expectations (for early stages of US 5G networks)

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  • AT&T and Verizon have significant high-band spectrum holdings and both have installed mmWave service in several markets.
  • While it appears mmWave is Verizon's sole focus, SPRINT: Sprint has the best prospects for early 5G service.
  • For the iPhone - Not having 5G in 2020 is a risk because carriers will only promote devices that can run on their new network service, and won't recommend the devices that can't.

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