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But why aren't there activists?

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Joel Greenblatt Short Tesla And Long Orbital ATK

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Warren Buffett’s Transparency Problem

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  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc., the giant conglomerate run for nearly half a century by lionized investor Warren Buffett, is drawing scrutiny for being less than crystal clear about how it is so profitable.
  • The questions from Wall Street analysts, insurance specialists and corporate governance experts put the spotlight on a behemoth with $517 billion in assets that in.

Equal-Weighted Portfolios Avoid Recency Bias

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Howard Marks: The Importance of Self-Assessment

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Allan Mecham: A Businesslike Approach Toward Investing Like Ben Graham

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  • Allan Mecham celebrates the 15-year anniversary of Arlington Value Capital and talks about taking a businesslike approach toward investing like Ben Graham.
  • Ben deserves special mention for doing a tremendous amount of work behind the scenes.
  • I get far more credit than I deserve, and returns would suffer without Ben's efforts.

Is the VIX a Venerable Contrarian Indicator for Savvy Traders?

We may be off right now about 3% from the all-time DJIA highs the US market reached in late December 2014, but many participants in this current Bull Run are actively looking for the clues that will safely see them exit before this run is well and truly over.

Naturally, much has been written about the VIX, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index and how it can be used as a leading indicator of when to get in and out of the market. “Get in at 30 and out at 20.” That’s just one rule of thumb when it comes to VIX levels. When the ‘fear index’ is high, an attractive market entry point may be present, and vice versa.

But the VIX is not really the fear/complacency proxy that it’s been christened.

To really have any chance at using it as an effective trading indicator, investors need to know exactly what it does – and does not – communicate…

First Eagle Global Value On A Gloomy Macro Picture

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  • On the subject of too much debt, we've repeatedly made the point in the last several months that globally, we have more debt relative to the economy today than we had before 2008.1 In essence, the deleveraging in the U.S. private sector debt has been more than offset by the growth in Chinese debt.
  • Within the developed markets, debt has also grown relative to output due to large growth in government sector debt and in certain high yield issuers.

Aswath Damodaran: Equity Risk Premiums [CLASS WEBCASTS]

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  • In this session, Aswath Damodaran looks at the process of estimating equity risk premiums for countries and then extend that discussion to estimating it for a company.
  • I also look at the process of estimating costs of debt & capital.
  • In this session, I look at the intuition behind implied equity risk premiums and how to get from a country ERP to a company ERP.

Gross Profits to Assets Ratio Backtest

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The Gross Profits to Assets ratio is a relatively new profitability measure. Backtesting reveals that stocks in the top 20% of gross profits to assets return 12.32% annualized.

Searching For Value In Large-Cap Stocks: Trapeze Asset Management

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  • With no discount to fair value, the expected return for U.S. large-caps is simply the expected future growth in fair market value.
  • Going forward, we expect an annual growth rate closer to GDP at 3-4%. Value Line's expected 5 year return for the average stock sits near a multi-year low.
  • We expect our current undervalued holdings to ascend to fair market value over the next 12-24 months.

Daniel Kahneman: The Human Side of Decision Making

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  • So ground-breaking are their discoveries that The New York Times Company columnist David Brooks has called Drs. Kahneman and Tversky "The Lewis and Clark of the mind." In 2002, Dr. Kahneman's work was recognized with the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his integration of insights from psychological research into economic science.
  • In 1969, Dr. Kahneman began his long collaboration with Dr. Tversky, a fellow psychology professor at Th e Hebrew University.

Oil Prices: Where is it heading? Lessons From Security Analysis

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  • Over the last decade or so, oil prices have been relatively high due to the surge in demand for oil in countries like China and conflicts in these unstable yet key oil producing nations.
  • Having understood the history of oil prices - reasons for the huge fluctuations, the big question still remains, will oil prices still remain so low? While it is very hard to predict where the price floor for oil would be, our personal take is that prices would most likely rebound back in the future.

John Neff And Jesse Livermore Resource Pages Updated

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  • As promised recently we are updating/cleaning the investor resource pages on a regular basis.
  • We do not post all the investor updates on Twitter, Facebook etc.
  • Below is a partial excerpt from the two new pages followed by link to the full page, which can also be found under Value Investors tab above.

All Investing Involves Risk

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If your goal is to accumulate wealth for a comfortable retirement, then there is no risk-free path. Throughout time every angle has been tried and failed. However, some approaches carry less risk than others. Let's consider some of the popular paths...

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