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Amazon and Apple at a Trillion $: A Follow-up on Uncertainty and Catalysts!

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  • That said, it is puzzling that we still stick with point estimates (single numbers for revenue growth and operating margins) in conventional valuation, when we have the tools to bring in uncertainty into our valuation judgments.
  • Simulated Values: Apple and Amazon Before delving into the simulations for Apple and Amazon, it is important that we set up the structure of the simulations first by first deciding what variables to build distributions around.

Apple Inc. (AAPL) Dividend Stock Analysis

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Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of Apple Inc. (AAPL). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:

Company Description: Apple Inc. is a prominent provider of hardware including iPhone smartphones, iPad tablets, Mac computers, wearables and iPod digital media players...

Hug Your Kids

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  • I really enjoyed my Q&A presentation to the CFA Society of Orange County.
  • My wife and our four-year-old daughter, Mia Sarah, meet us for breakfast, and then we just spend the rest of the day at the beach and the evening by the swimming pool – Mia Sarah’s favorite activity.
  • A great place to decompress every few months.On Monday afternoon, a few hours before our flight, my wife, Mia Sarah, and I were sitting by the swimming pool at the hotel.

Video of the Week: The Dividend Cut in Disguise

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  • 00:56 Mike: And now that it’s been 10 years that we haven’t went through a recession, a market crash, or any bubbles I’d say that pretty much all companies look good, right?
  • 01:55 Mike: When a company stop increasing its dividend, it’s making a dividend cut in disguise.
  • 03:20 Mike: And this is why they’re cutting their dividend without you knowing it because they are not able to grow fast enough, they’re not able to increase their cash flow in a matter to share the wealth with investors and keep up with inflation.

This Week’s Best Investing Reads 09/21/2018

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  • Here’s a list of this week’s best investing reads:
  • This week’s best investing research reads:
  • This week’s best investing podcasts:

Carl Icahn: Top 10 Holdings, New Buys, Sold Out Positions

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  • These documents allow investors to track their favorite superinvestors, their fund’s current holdings, plus their new buys and sold out positions.
  • We spend a lot of time here at The Acquirer’s Multiple digging through these 13F-HR documents to find out which superinvestors hold positions in the stocks listed in our Stock Screeners .
  • As a new weekly feature, we’re now providing the top 10 holdings, new additions to the portfolio, and sold out positions from some of our favorite superinvestors based on their latest 13F-HR documents.

Valuation Driven Buy Idea: Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN)

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  • In FY17, chicken accounted for 30% of Tyson’s total sales, while beef, pork, and prepared foods accounted for 38%, 11% and 20% of the total sales respectively.
  • 2) For the domestic market, Tyson has focused on R&D to drive growth from innovation.
  • Nearly 65% of its business is in value added, branded chicken and prepared foods business, which gives the company more power to pass on higher cost to customers.

TAM Stock Screener – Stocks Appearing in Simons, Greenblatt, Griffin Portfolios

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  • Part of the weekly research here at The Acquirer’s Multiple features some of the top picks from our Stock Screeners and some top investors who are holding these same picks in their portfolios.
  • Electro Scientific Industries Inc is a manufacturer of electronic components.
  • Jim Simons – 1,808,720 total shares

Murray Stahl: We Find Things That Nobody Wants To Buy For A Reason That Is Not Related To Fundamentals Of Valuation

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  • In this interview with Ticker he discusses areas where investors can find these opportunities saying:
  • That is a structural reason for not buying a stock that has nothing to do with fundamentals.
  • First, the parties negotiate prior to the filing and, second, everyone knows the filing is coming.

WDC Popping on the Radar

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  • The price drops in HDD and SSD or crypto.
  • Western Digital at Old School Value
  • The main thing that grabs my interest is that there isn’t a new bear case other than fears of pricing and the same concern of HDD death.

Today’s financial insanity – Tilray

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  • I’m not sure what to say about this chart other than “holy crap”:
  • With a market capitalization now of $21 billion, Tilray is worth more than (insert the names of any companies that actually have real businesses with real profits here).
  • Short borrow rates are 500%:

Apple and Amazon at a Trillion $: Looking Back and Looking Forward!

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  • Apple and Amazon have had amazing runs, but without taking anything away from their success, it is worth noting that during their march towards trillion dollar market capitalizations, each has had to endure periods in the wilderness, and the way they dealt with market adversity is what has made them the companies that they are today.
  • The Amazon operating story also starts with revenue growth, but the company's evolution on operating margins has followed a different path from Apple's:

Why Dividend Growth Stocks Are Evil

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I can't carry on anymore. The secret has become too much of a burden and it must be shared with the masses. This will shock some and enrage others, but it must be said, and I should be the one to say it. Dividend stocks are evil and they will eventually lead to the collapse of western civilization as we know it. There, I said it and here is why I believe it...

Richard Zeckhauser: Mere Mortals Should Not Try To Imitate Warren Buffett or Bill Miller

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  • “Sidecar investments.
  • Those like [Bill] Miller and Buffet, who can leverage complementary skills in stock market investment, will be in a privileged position of limited competition.
  • A principal advantage of joining is that you would be able to invest a reasonable sum on the same basis as the firm’s insiders and venture capitalists.

Michael Burry (1999): It Seems To Me That AAPL Is Incredibly Undervalued @ $1.59

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  • His post detailed his valuation on AAPL stock, which at that time traded at around $1.59.
  • I like AAPL because it IMO is now a bona fide value stock on an enterprise value/ratio basis, and is generating tons of cash.
  • Pairs to my AAPL and my APCC as Buffett-like tech stock long-term holds.

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